Powered by CFTC-regulated prediction market data

Geopolitical Risk,
Quantified and Hedged

Shielded maps your company's exposure to geopolitical events—wars, sanctions, tariffs, infrastructure disruptions—onto prediction market probabilities and generates specific hedging recommendations. See your risk in dollars, not guesswork.

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Strait of Hormuz7.3%
Taiwan Conflict4.1%
US-China Tariffs34%
Red Sea Disruption15.8%
Panama Canal3.8%
EU Carbon Border12.2%

Built on data from

Kalshi
Polymarket
Bloomberg
Reuters

The $4.2 Trillion Blind Spot

Geopolitical events moved $4.2 trillion in market value last year. Most enterprises had no hedging in place. Your board expects better.

What companies hedge today

  • Oil & commodity futures
  • Currency exchange rates
  • Interest rate swaps
  • Credit default risk

What they don't hedge

  • Strait of Hormuz closure
  • Taiwan semiconductor disruption
  • Trade war escalation
  • Suez/Panama canal blockades
  • Sanctions cascades

These events can wipe out 10–30% of annual revenue overnight.
Prediction markets now make it possible to quantify and hedge them.

$0T

market value moved by geopolitical events in 2024

0%

of Fortune 500 have no systematic geopolitical hedge

0x

more frequent than a decade ago

<0min

from ticker to full risk profile

Three Steps to Hedged Certainty

01

Map Your Exposure

Upload financials, enter a stock ticker, or chat with our AI analyst. We build your geopolitical exposure graph in under two minutes — every supply chain node, revenue region, and commodity dependency.

02

Track Live Probabilities

We match your exposure graph to real-time prediction market events from Kalshi and Polymarket. See exactly which geopolitical scenarios threaten your P&L, updated every 5 minutes.

03

Get Hedge Recommendations

Receive specific, actionable hedging strategies — which contracts to buy, how many, and the cost-benefit tradeoff. Recommendations are reviewed by our advisory team before delivery.

Your Risk Command Center

Everything you need to monitor, quantify, and hedge geopolitical exposure — in one dashboard.

app.shielded.ai/dashboard

Total Exposure

$284M

-$70M base case

Events Tracked

24

3 above threshold

Hedge Coverage

73%

+12% this month

Tail Risk (95th)

-$280M

across 4 factors

Portfolio Exposure Over Time

1W1M3M
-$120M-$70M-$20M

Top Events

Hormuz Closure7.3%
Taiwan Conflict4.1%
US-China Tariffs34.0%
Red Sea Disruption15.8%
Panama Canal3.8%
1

Real-time probability tracking from CFTC-regulated markets

2

Your exposure quantified in dollars — base case and tail risk

3

One-click hedge recommendations with cost-benefit analysis

Quantified Risk, Not Guesswork

See exactly how geopolitical events impact your bottom line — probability-weighted base case and tail risk scenarios, updated in real time.

Risk Factors
Base CaseTail Risk

Energy Costs

Hormuz Closure, Red Sea Disruption

-$32M-$128M

Supply Chain

Taiwan Crisis, Suez Blockade

-$18M-$72M

Trade Policy

US-China Tariffs, EU Carbon Tax

-$12M-$45M

Revenue Impact

Regional Recession, Sanctions

-$8M-$35M

Total Portfolio

-$70M-$280M

Built for the People Who Own the Risk

Whether you're quantifying exposure for the board, optimizing treasury operations, or building enterprise risk frameworks — Shielded speaks your language.

Chief Financial Officer

“How much are we exposed?”

See portfolio-level geopolitical exposure in dollars. Present board-ready risk reports with probability-weighted scenarios. Know exactly what’s hedged and what isn’t.

See CFO Use Case

Treasurer

“What should we hedge and at what cost?”

Get specific hedging recommendations with cost-benefit analysis. Compare prediction market contracts to traditional instruments. Execute with confidence.

See Treasurer Use Case

Head of Risk

“Where are our blind spots?”

Map your entire supply chain to geopolitical events. Get alerts when probabilities cross your thresholds. Replace quarterly risk reports with real-time monitoring.

See Risk Use Case

What Risk Leaders Say

We reduced unhedged geopolitical exposure by 60% in Q1. For the first time, our board has real-time visibility into how events like Hormuz or Taiwan would impact our bottom line.

CFO, Fortune 500 Shipping & Logistics

Shielded turned a 3-week quarterly risk assessment into something our treasury team runs in 15 minutes. The prediction market integration is genuinely novel.

Head of Risk, Global Commodities Trader

The exposure graph alone justified the platform. We discovered $45M in unhedged concentration risk we didn’t know we had.

Treasurer, Mid-Cap Energy Company

Bank-grade encryption
Real-time data (5-min refresh)
CFTC-regulated data sources
SOC 2 Type II (in progress)
Enterprise SSO ready

Frequently Asked Questions

See Your Geopolitical Exposure in 30 Minutes

Book a personalized demo with our team. We'll map your company's risk profile live and show you exactly what Shielded can do for your portfolio.

30-minute personalized walkthrough · No commitment required